Personalized methotrexate treatment in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a narrative review
Review Article

Personalized methotrexate treatment in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a narrative review

Janani Sundaresan1, Lana J. Verstoep1,2, Gerrit Jansen3, Robert de Jonge1, Maurits C. F. J. de Rotte1#, Maja Bulatović-Ćalasan1,4#

1Laboratory of Specialized Diagnostics & Research, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; 2Department of Pediatric Gastroenterology, Emma Children’s Hospital, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; 3Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; 4Department of Rheumatology & Clinical Immunology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Contributions: (I) Conception and design: J Sundaresan, MCFJ de Rotte, M Bulatović-Ćalasan; (II) Administrative support: R de Jonge, MCFJ de Rotte; (III) Provision of study materials or patients: G Jansen, R de Jonge; (IV) Collection and assembly of data: J Sundaresan, LJ Verstoep; (V) Data analysis and interpretation: J Sundaresan, LJ Verstoep; (VI) Manuscript writing: All authors; (VII) Final approval of manuscript: All authors.

#These authors contributed equally to this work.

Correspondence to: Maja Bulatović-Ćalasan, MD, PhD. Laboratory of Specialized Diagnostics & Research, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Rheumatology & Clinical Immunology, University Medical Center Utrecht, G. 02.228, Postbus 85500, 3508 GA Utrecht, The Netherlands. Email: M.Bulatovic@umcutrecht.nl.

Background and Objective: Low-dose methotrexate (MTX) is a key drug in the treatment of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs). Although treatment is effective and safe, 30–40% of patients discontinue due to either adverse events (AEs) or inefficacy (non-response). Effective treatment early in the disease course is key for control and to prevent irreversible damage. Personalizing treatment of MTX would (I) select the right drug for the right patient in order to achieve fast disease control and prevent adverse events, and (II) apply therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) to optimize drug dosing. The aim of this narrative review is to present a comprehensive update on the options available to personalize MTX treatment for IMID patients.

Methods: To this end, a PubMed literature search from 1980 to 2025 was performed.

Key Content and Findings: Thus far, erythrocytes are commonly used as a matrix for TDM of low-dose MTX due to their abundance and ease of access. But extended studies are needed to investigate the effects of MTX on the immune effector cells (various immune cell types) or target tissues (mucosa, synovium, skin). The role of gut microbiota is an emerging field of research with respect to MTX response. Response prediction and TDM of MTX have been largely investigated in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to other IMIDs. Therapeutic cut-off windows have been determined in RA for response and for hepatotoxicity. Before considering switching the type of medication in cases of non-response and toxicity, alternate dosing schemes of MTX may be considered.

Conclusions: Studies investigating the extrapolation of observations from RA into other IMIDs are needed. Lastly, combining prediction models and TDM may guide personalized treatments of MTX. Clinical implementation studies are necessary to demonstrate their value.

Keywords: Low-dose methotrexate (low-dose MTX); MTX polyglutamate (MTX-PG); personalized medicine; therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM); prediction models


Received: 28 February 2025; Accepted: 15 May 2025; Published online: 15 July 2025.

doi: 10.21037/jlpm-25-7


Introduction

Background

Since its first use as a chemotherapeutic in the late 1950s, methotrexate (MTX) is now an indispensable drug in chemotherapy (high doses) and in low weekly doses, for the treatment of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) (1). Currently, MTX is the first-line chemical/synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug (csDMARD) of treatment in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), severe psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis (PsA), and next-in-line for mild Crohn’s disease (CD), pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), sarcoidosis, and myasthenia gravis (2-4).

MTX is an antifolate, prescribed weekly either orally or as subcutaneous injections. In low-dose MTX treatment, plasma concentration peaks after 1 hour (half-life of about 6 hours) and is undetectable by 24 hours (5-7). Oral MTX is absorbed by the proton-coupled folate transporter (PCFT) in the small intestines (5). Circulating MTX is taken up by the cells via the reduced folate carrier (RFC) and folate receptors depending on the cell type (1,8). Upon cellular entry, the enzyme folyl-polyglutamate synthetase (FPGS) converts MTX to its active metabolites MTX polyglutamate (MTX-PG1–6) forms by adding up to five additional glutamate moieties (1,9,10). MTX-PG1–6 inhibit dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) and thymidylate synthase (TS), thereby affecting the folate pool and pyrimidine synthesis, respectively (9). Additionally, MTX-PG1–6 inhibits 5-aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide ribonucleotide formyltransferase (ATIC), ultimately increasing extracellular adenosine concentrations, which, via interaction with adenosine receptor 2a/b confers potent anti-inflammatory effects (Figure 1) (1,9,11). MTX is eliminated via urine (~80%) or bile (~10%) (5). About 3% of MTX undergoes first-pass metabolism and is converted to 7-hydroxy MTX (7-OH-MTX) in the liver and is eliminated via urine (5). 7-OH-MTX can be polyglutamylated and is a very weak inhibitor of DHFR (12).

Figure 1 Mechanism of action of MTX. MTX, upon cellular entry, is polyglutamylated (MTX-PG1–6) by FPGS while the reverse reaction is catalyzed by GGH. MTX-PG1–3 can be effluxed by ABC transporters—ABCC1–5 and ABCG2. MTX-PG1–6 are potent inhibitors of DHFR, TS, ATIC. Inhibition of TS affects pyrimidine synthesis. Inhibition of ATIC increases ATP which is effluxed from the cell. ATP is converted to ADP and AMP by CD39. CD73 further converts AMP to adenosine which enter the cell via AR2a/2b. Adenosine then acts as anti-inflammatory agent. ABC, ATP-binding cassette; ADP, adenosine diphosphate; AICAR, 5-aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide ribonucleotide; AMP, adenosine monophosphate; ATIC, 5-aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide ribonucleotide formyltransferase; ATP, adenosine triphosphate; DHF, dihydrofolate; DHFR, dihydrofolate reductase; dTMP, deoxythymidine monophosphate; dUMP, deoxyuridine monophosphate; FPGS, folyl-polyglutamate synthetase; FAICAR, 5-formamidoimidazole-4-carboxamide ribonucleotide; FR, folate receptor; GMP, guanosine monophosphate; IMP, inosine monophosphate; MTX, methotrexate; MTX-PG, methotrexate polyglutamate; PCFT, proton-coupled folate transporter; RFC, reduced folate carrier; THF, tetrahydrofolate; TS, thymidylate synthase.

Rationale and knowledge gap

Low drug costs with good safety profile, solidified the position of MTX as a key immunomodulator in the treatment of IMIDs. A recent large clinical study (NORDSTAR) compared the efficacy of MTX (with prednisolone or hydroxychloroquine ± sulfasalazine) against biologics (certolizumab-pegol, tocilizumab, and abatacept) in treatment naïve early RA patients and revealed that after 24 weeks of treatment, MTX was non-inferior to certolizumab-pegol and tocilizumab. Notably, radiographic progression was similar between all treatment arms (13). Nevertheless, 30–40% patients fail to respond to MTX with failure attributed to either inadequate response, or due to intolerance (14,15). A recent study suggested that ~65% of RA patients are underdosed with MTX (16). Multiple biomarkers and methods investigating prediction of MTX response exists. Combining different biomarkers can aid in personalizing MTX treatment, effectively treating diseases early with timely step-ups.

Objective

This narrative review explores recent developments in personalized medicine of MTX, firstly focusing on the clinical efficacy of MTX in IMIDs with strategies to improve it, and prediction of response to MTX, and secondly on therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of low-dose MTX, highlighting some of the tools currently available for this purpose. We present this article in accordance with the Narrative Review reporting checklist (available at https://jlpm.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/jlpm-25-7/rc).


Methods

Literature search was carried out in PubMed. Keywords used in the literature search included “methotrexate” AND “methotrexate-polyglutamates” AND disease entities, focusing on RA, JIA, CD/IBD, and sarcoidosis (Table 1). Papers published between 1980 and 2025 were included, including original research, meta-analysis, systematic reviews, clinical and observational studies, and clinical trials and references from selected articles. Case studies were excluded.

Table 1

The search strategy summary

Items Specification
Date of search 31-01-2025
Databases and other sources searched PubMed, references of selected articles
Search terms used Terms include: “methotrexate or MTX”, “MTX-PG or methotrexate polyglutamates”, “rheumatoid arthritis”, “juvenile idiopathic arthritis”, “inflammatory bowel disease or IBD or pediatric IBD”, “Crohn’s disease”, “immune-mediated inflammatory diseases”, “TDM or therapeutic drug monitoring”, “metabolomics”, “SNPs”, “alternative splicing”, “gut microbiome”, “prediction model of non-response”
Timeframe 1980–2025
Exclusion criteria Language restricted to studies in English only; case studies
Any additional considerations, if applicable References from selected articles were considered based on relevance

IBD, inflammatory bowel disease; MTX, methotrexate; MTX-PG, methotrexate polyglutamate; SNPs, single-nucleotide polymorphisms; TDM, therapeutic drug monitoring.


Clinical efficacy of MTX

Treatment guidelines

Efficacy

In RA, treatment is initiated with MTX, concomitantly with glucocorticoids and is escalated if there is insufficient response at 6 months (17,18). For polyarthritis and mono/oligoarthritis subtypes of PsA, a rapid start with csDMARD (MTX, leflunomide, or sulfasalazine). For psoriasis patients, MTX is started at 15 mg/week and escalated to 20–25 mg/week (19,20). For mild to moderate CD, the guidelines suggest use of subcutaneous/intramuscular MTX dosed up to 25 mg/weekly for induction and maintenance of response (21,22).

Toxicity

MTX is considered a safe drug with a toxicity profile including gastro-intestinal (GI) intolerances, elevated liver enzymes, and occurrences of cytopenia. Patients initially starting MTX are monitored every month for the first 3 months, followed by once every three to 4 months (17,20,23). Toxicities are more common in patients with liver or renal impairment (24,25). Folic acid supplementation reduces the toxicity of MTX with 1–2 mg supplemented daily starting 1 day after MTX intake (26). In the Netherlands, folic acid is prescribed at dosage of 5 mg/week (27). Japan College of Rheumatology recommends folic acid supplementation once a week dosed at 5 mg/week (18). There is no consensus between the folic acid dosing schemes and evidence for the most optimal scheme is lacking. Dosing folic acid at either 5 or 0.8 mg/week has similar effects on adverse events (AEs) in RA, while increasing to 30 mg/week did not offer additional benefits against toxicity (28,29). However, elevated unmetabolized folic acid in plasma is associated with long-term health risks (30).

Strategies to increase MTX efficacy

Route of administration

Route of administration impacts the bioavailability of a drug. The bioavailability of intravenous administration is 100% because of direct drug-delivery to circulation. Hoekstra et al. reported the bioavailability of a median oral MTX dose of 30 mg/week (range, 25–40 mg/week) was 64% (range, 21–96%) of subcutaneous route (7). Subcutaneous and intramuscular injections result in similar bioavailability, with both higher than oral (31). A recent study in RA patients reported after subcutaneous administration of MTX, accumulation of MTX-PG1–5 in erythrocytes in the first 2 months of treatment was significantly higher than after oral dosing (32). A review from our group on oral and subcutaneous administration suggested that despite some initial advantages with subcutaneous administration, after prolonged (>3 months) treatment, there was no evidence to support its superiority over oral route (27). The change in the route of administration can be a shared-decision with the patients before changing treatment plans. Beyond route of administration, alternative dosing strategies can be considered.

Split-doses

The literature on the effects of splitting MTX dose is contradictory. One study showed increased bioavailability of oral MTX when the dose was split to two doses, 8 hours apart against once weekly (33). Another study did not show a clinical advantage of split MTX dose, but no increase in AEs due to the split dose was reported (34). Recently, a split MTX dose study (5 days/week or twice-on-the-same-day/week) demonstrated similar efficacies and AEs. Interestingly, this study observed reduced accumulation of MTX-PG3 in erythrocytes in the daily-MTX group compared to the once-a-week-dose group of RA patients (35). In contrast, a study in 135 RA patients demonstrated that split oral dose (twice a week) had similar efficacy as single intramuscular dose, showed improved efficacy against single oral dose and came without any significant AEs (36). In a recently presented abstract at American College of Rheumatology (ACR), RA patients also showed better response in split dose (morning and evening) against single weekly dose, however increased transaminases emerged (at 16 weeks and persistent) along with low white blood cell count at 24 weeks (37). Splitting the dose of MTX can be an alternative before changing the route of administration, though patients need to be monitored for toxicities.

MTX with efflux transporter inhibitors

Increasing the cellular availability of MTX can theoretically space the time between consecutive doses or lower doses without impacting therapy efficacy. Conceivably, cellular retention of MTX can be increased by blocking cellular efflux transporters of MTX, i.e., ABCC15 and ABCG2 (Figure 1). Notably, increased ABCG2 expression on RA synovial macrophages correlated with reduced MTX response (38). Investigating the expression of six genes, four in the folate pathway—DHFR, FPGS, GGH, RFC and two efflux transporters—ABCC1 and ABCG2 in blood cells of RA patients at baseline and 12 weeks after MTX use, revealed that good responders had the highest decrease in the expression of ABCG2 between baseline and 12 weeks (39). Measuring levels of ATP-binding cassette (ABC) drug efflux transporters may help design treatment strategies using transporter inhibitors, though these inhibitors must still be tested for safety and effectiveness (39,40).

Aside from improving efficacy, predicting potential non-responders before treatment can be cost-effective and prevent worsening of disease.

Prediction of MTX response

Prediction modeling in IMIDs can either predict response or AEs to MTX. Lifestyle [smoking/alcohol use, body mass index (BMI)], clinical/genetic [alternative splicing (AS), presence of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), kidney function], or other factors (age, sex, disease duration) play a role in prediction.

Biomarkers of response prediction

AS

During the processing of a pre-messenger RNA (pre-mRNA), the intronic and exonic regions are spliced differently, enabling the mRNA to transcribe protein variants. The first study describing the role of AS in FPGS described a loss-of-function variant of FPGS, leading to MTX resistance in leukemia. This novel transcript of FPGS was missing the portion coded by exon 12 (41). A following comprehensive PCR study on FPGS identified additional AS transcripts of FPGS, one of which was FPGS-8PR, a transcript with partial retention of the 8th intronic region (42). A study in RA showed that the ratio of FPGS-8PR/FPGS-WT was associated with higher baseline disease activity score evaluated in 44 joints (DAS-44) at 13 and 26 weeks of MTX treatment. Predicting 13-week non-response with FPGS-8PR/FPGS-WT ratio had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.89 and low-disease activity (LDA) was 0.74 (43). Further, ex-vivo monocytes from RA patients were found to have low FPGS activity due to increased FPGS-8PR. Monocyte-derived macrophages, however, had lower FPGS-8PR resulting in higher FPGS activity (44).

SNPs

Effects of SNPs on MTX (non)response and intolerance is an active area of research. SNPs in genes of different enzymes associated with MTX/folate influx/efflux (SLC19A1/RFC, ABCB1, ABCC2), enzymes (de)activating MTX (FPGS or GGH), and enzymes in the folate pathway (MTHFR, MTRR, ATIC) have been investigated. The results of a large-scale genome-wide association study with 1,424 early RA patients on MTX monotherapy did not identify any SNPs to be significantly associated with response. The study identified a SNP of NRG3 was associated with disease activity score evaluated in 28 joints (DAS-28) (45). A machine learning model combining 160 SNPs with other factors like age, sex, smoking, rheumatoid factor (RF), DAS-28, and EULAR response at 3 months had an AUC of 0.84. Without the SNPs, the AUC of model was 0.54 (46). Some SNPs that affect adult response do not necessarily have the same effects on response in children or in other IMIDs; for example, polymorphisms in FPGS were found to affect MTX response or toxicity in adults with RA (47-49). However, the SNPs in FPGS were found not to be associated with response or toxicity in a population of psoriatic patients or in JIA patients (50,51). Though studies associate SNPs and response, a validated panel of SNPs, rather than one maybe needed to predict response.

Plasma/serum biomarkers

In 2012, a multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score was developed and validated in RA patients treated with DMARDs, including MTX. This score, aimed to monitor disease activity, comprised of 12 serum protein concentrations (52). The proteins evaluated include epidermal growth factor (EGF), vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A), leptin, interleukin-6, (IL-6), serum amyloid A (SAA), C-reactive protein (CRP), vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (VCAM-1), matrix metalloproteinase-1 (MMP-1), matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3), tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (TNFR-I), human cartilage glycoprotein 39 (YKL-40), and resistin (52). Using the MBDA score on patients from the SWEFOT trial, Hambardzumyan et al. associated the individual components of the MBDA score at baseline to MTX response in DMARD-naïve RA patients. Patients reaching LDA at 3 months had significantly lower levels of CRP and IL-6, while TNFR-I and VCAM-1 were significantly higher. Logistic regression model using the protein biomarkers identified a combination of 4 protein biomarkers—VCAM-1, TNFR-I, CRP, and leptin, was associated with 3-month EULAR response (53).

A UK study with 100 MTX-naïve RA patients used baseline serum lipidomics to predict MTX response. Six-month MTX response was predicted using machine learning models with serum lipid profiles at pre-treatment and after 4 weeks of MTX treatment. The model with lipid profiles, however, only showed limited predictive ability and was not better than the clinical model (54). In psoriasis, hierarchical clustering of baseline serum metabolomics achieved separation between good and poor responders. After 16 weeks of MTX treatment, they identified that metabolites related to fatty acid, purine, androgen, and estrogen metabolisms were down-regulated in good responders while metabolites related to sugars and amino acids were up-regulated in poor responders (55). Semi-targeted metabolomics on plasma from 30 JIA patients collected at baseline and 3 months after MTX treatment identified alterations in 50 metabolites of which 12 were associated with disease activity. Reduction in three metabolites (dehydrocholic acid, biotin, and 4-picoline derived from microbiota) was associated with ACR response criteria (56). An untargeted metabolomics study using baseline serum from 82 early RA treatment-naïve patients, identified eight possible biomarkers that differed significantly between sufficient and insufficient responders after 3 months of MTX treatment (57). Homocystine, taurine, ATP, GDP, and uric acid that was significantly lower in insufficient responders. Sufficient responders had significantly higher, 1,3- or 2,3-bisphosphoglyceric acid (DPG), glycerol-3-phosphate, and phosphoenolpyruvate. The AUC of a model constructed using homocystine, 1,3- or 2,3-DPG, and glycerol-3-phosphate was 0.81 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72–0.91]. Overrepresentation analysis indicated that metabolites involved in glycolysis and Warburg effect at baseline were different between the two MTX response groups and could be related to activation of immune system (57). Metabolomic or lipidomic studies in other IMIDs are lacking compared to RA. Validating the findings from both these studies in external cohorts could help identify clinically useable metabolic biomarkers for MTX response in RA and other IMIDs.

Gut microbiome

Gut microbiome plays a key role in absorption of MTX and conversion to non-active metabolites, thus affecting bioavailability. The connection between gut microbiome and MTX response was first demonstrated in mice in 1972 (58). However, the field of gut microbiome and associations with MTX response is a relatively young field. A study in RA patients used baseline gut microbiome data to predict efficacy of oral MTX treatment, by constructing a random forest model. The model included microbiota Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways and clinical predictors with an AUC of 0.84. Notably, non-responders had higher bacterial biodiversity with upregulation in microbial pathway involving MAPK signaling pathway, DNA replication, fatty acid degradation, and ABC transporters (59).

Similarly in psoriasis patients, poor responders were found to have a higher bacterial diversity. After MTX treatment, although the diversity of bacterial community did not differ significantly, good responders showed an increase in relative abundance of Bacteroides vulgatus and family Veillonellaceae and a decrease in the relative abundance of Bacteroides caccae and family Erysipelotrichaceae. These findings need to be validated in larger patient cohorts (55). In a recent pre-print, a similar study was carried out by including treatment-naïve RA, PsA patients, and a control group which had IMIDs symptoms with a diagnosis unrelated to rheumatic diseases (60). Similar to the previous two studies, responders and non-responders had a significant difference in the biodiversity in PsA patients. Contrastingly, this study did not find a significant difference in species richness between responders and non-responders in both RA and PsA. A random forest-based prediction model distinguishing MTX responders and non-responders in PsA had a poor predictive power (AUC of 0.56), and a moderate AUC (0.74) for RA patients. Contrasting the observations in psoriasis, metabolic pathways related to amino acid and carbohydrate metabolism were upregulated in both groups. Specifically, in PsA MTX-responders, pathways in short-chain fatty acid metabolism was enriched. In RA MTX-non-responders, pathways in fatty acid biosynthesis and amino acid metabolism were enriched (60). These study results must be interpreted with caution as it awaits peer-review. In a cohort of JIA patients (78 Italian, 21 Dutch), a recent study found Italian patients had lower microbial abundance while Dutch patients had a weak increased abundance compared to healthy controls. This study noted that the disease activity, inflammation status were not drivers for dysbiosis while age, geographic origin were related (61). Microbiota are influenced by diet, geography, use of antibiotics to name a few. If the microbiota identified are validated in larger cohorts, gut microbiota can be investigated as a possible factor to explain the inter-individual differences in MTX-PG1–6 accumulation in erythrocytes, seen after MTX treatment.

Prediction models

RA

AE prediction models: few studies constructed models predicting AEs. In one such study, a model to predict AEs within 2 years of MTX use was constructed. This model included clinical [RF/anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) positive, MTX dose, and on MTX monotherapy] and genetic factors (SNPs of SLC19A1, ABCG2, ADORA3, and TYMS) had a predictive AUC of 0.78. However, the model lost its predictive power upon cross-validation (AUC of 0.57) (62). Another study in a population of 110 patients, using binomial logistic regression identified low BMI and FPGS SNP (rs10106) were associated with increased AEs. This model had a modest sensitivity of 44.4% and a specificity of 79% (63). A model constructed specifically for the prediction of hepatotoxicity, which included 12 clinical variables and seven SNPs, had an AUC of 0.902 with sensitivity of 85.1% and specificity of 87.8% (64).

Response prediction models for MTX: a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model, genes predict DAS-28 after 6 months of MTX monotherapy, included baseline DAS-28, presence of erosion, MTX dose, and SNPs in the SLC19A1, SLCO1B1, TYMS, and AMPD1. The predicted 6-month DAS-28 values significantly correlated with the observed DAS-28 values (65). Predicting MTX efficacy in Japanese patients, a model incorporated clinical (DAS-28-CRP and folic acid use) and genetic factors (SNPs of SLCO3A1, CYP7A1, CHST2, GGH, SLC22A1, EPHX1, and ATP7B) and had a AUC of 0.841 (64). A similar study conducted in the Netherlands included different clinical (sex, baseline DAS-28, smoking status, RF positivity) and genetic (SNPs of AMPD1 34CC, ATIC 347G, ITPA 94A, and MTHFD1 1958AA genes) factors. The study had moderate AUC (71.5%) for the models predicting response after 3–4 months of MTX use and 74.6% for the model with the genetic parameters only (66). The RAMS prediction model was the first to include a psychological factor in the prediction of non-response (EULAR criteria) to MTX at 6 months. The predictors included RF negativity, Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score, 28-joint tender joint count (TJC28), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (anxiety score) and disease activity. The AUC of the model was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.73–0.80). Excluding patients at remission or had LDA at baseline, model AUC was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.68–0.76) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.66–0.75), respectively (67). A logistic regression prediction model built on the MTX arm of U-Act-Early cohort of RA patients identified baseline DAS-28, current smoking, and alcohol consumption with an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66–0.84; sensitivity: 0.89; specificity: 0.52). Interestingly, this study suggested that consumption of 1–2 glasses of alcohol reduced risk of insufficient MTX response (68).

Using data from the tREACH cohort from the Netherlands, a prognostic prediction model for insufficient response was constructed (69). Final model included clinical factors like DAS-28 >5.1, HAQ >0.6, current smoking, BMI >25 kg/m2, erythrocyte folate <750 nmol/L, and genetic factors (SNPs of ABCB1, ABCC3). The AUC of the test and validation cohorts was 0.80. External validation using a different cohort of RA patients resulted in an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.64–0.85) (69). This model was optimized and a new final model was proposed containing clinical factors only. The optimized model included baseline DAS-28, HAQ, BMI, erythrocyte folate and smoking for prediction and has an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.69–0.81) (available on https://www.evidencio.com/models/show/2191?v=1.31) (70). Different machine learning algorithms were tested and the logistic regression model was found to have the best AUC of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.68–0.86). The final logistic regression model contains BMI, HAQ, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), TJC28, DMARD or corticosteroid use, and smoking as the final predictors and is also available on Evidencio (https://www.evidencio.com/models/show/2415) (71).

Most of the prediction models published so far have not been validated or implemented in a clinical setting. Extended research in the form of observational and implementational studies are needed to evaluate the readiness for predictive application. Using prediction models to predict MTX (non)response over time can be cost-effective while saving patients time by starting them on predicted efficacious treatments. In patients predicted to respond to MTX, TDM can ensure they get timely corrections to their treatment course based on their present difficulties such as intolerances or AEs.

JIA

In JIA, the first MTX non-response prediction model was developed in 2012 by Bulatovic et al. Using 1-year MTX response data from 183 JIA patients recruited from two observational cohorts in the Netherlands, the prediction model was validated in a cohort of 104 patients. The final model consisted of ESR, SNPs for MTRR (rs1801394), ABCB1 (rs1045642), ABCC1 (rs35592), and PCFT (rs2239907), and had an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI: 0.54–0.77) (72). A follow-up MTX intolerance prediction model included JIA category, disease activity score, parent/patient assessment of pain, antinuclear antibody (ANA), alanine transaminase (ALT), thrombocytes, creatinine, and an interaction term between creatinine and JIA category and classified 77% of the patients correctly (73).

A recent study used a machine learning approach to predict MTX response in JIA using data from electronic medical records from 362 JIA patients (74). Due to the retrospective nature of the study, DAS-44-ESR at 3 months after MTX start was used to define response and non-response. The extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model performed the best with of 0.97 and included CRP, the absolute value of CD3+ T-cell, RF-immunoglobulin G (IgG), TJC, direct and indirect bilirubin, active partial thrombin time, prothrombin and thrombin times, and fibrinogen variables. The study also constructed a mixed variables model by including features collected 3 months after MTX start which unsurprisingly performed better at predicting 3-month response (AUC =0.99) (74).

TDM of MTX

To use MTX-PG1–5 concentrations for TDM, they must be (I) reliably measurable from an accessible matrix, (II) have interindividual variations, and (III) there must be established relationships between drug concentration and clinical efficacy.

Monitoring of MTX and MTX-PG1–5

Plasma/serum

Plasma-based monitoring of MTX in high-dose MTX treatment (as a chemotherapeutic) is common due to the elevated risk of side effects (75). Monitoring of low-dose MTX in plasma has been challenging due to rapid plasma MTX clearance by 24 hours. Recent studies in RA, JIA, and psoriasis patients suggest the possibility of measuring MTX in plasma on the ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) to measure MTX drug adherence (6,76,77). These studies established adherence cut-off for MTX and 7-OH-MTX, based on the dose of MTX used (6,77). If validated, plasma-MTX can be used to identify potentially non-adherent patients. Quantifying MTX in plasma has a few caveats; firstly, factors like MTX dose, folate supplementation, malabsorption and fast metabolism, clearance, and bioavailability can influence the duration of MTX in plasma. Importantly, due to the low plasma quantities after 24 hours (~0.1 nmol/L), a sensitive device is mandatory. Plasma MTX is transient and dependent on the MTX administration, making it difficult to use for prediction of response or for TDM.

Erythrocytes and whole blood

To monitor efficacy of MTX, a suitable matrix was required. As MTX-PG1–5 are the intracellular active metabolites, studies evaluated MTX-PG1–5 concentrations in erythrocytes, which were chosen as a surrogate matrix due to the ease of collection. Multiple studies validated protocols to quantify MTX-PG1–5 in erythrocytes. These employ different techniques like fluorescent polarization, high-pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) post-column photo-oxidation, and UPLC-MS/MS (78-82). The UPLC-MS/MS methods using stable isotope labeled internal standards are preferred for their better sensitivity, specificity and accurate quantification of the MTX-PG1–5 (71). This method can also quantify MTX-PGs in whole blood (correcting for hematocrit). Quantification in erythrocytes led to multiple studies evaluating possible associations between individual erythrocyte MTX-PG1–5 concentration and therapy efficacy (83-86). After starting MTX, accumulation of MTX-PG1–5 in erythrocytes was observed which stabilized by 3 to 6 months of MTX treatment, with MTX-PG3 having the highest concentration after 3 months (Figure 2). A plausible explanation for this is due to the long lifespan of erythrocytes of about 120 days. By 3 to 6 months, all erythrocytes are exposed to MTX therefore no further accumulation is noted. The same pattern of erythrocyte MTX-PG1–5 accumulation is identified in RA, JIA, CD, and psoriasis patients (83-86).

Figure 2 Accumulation pattern of MTX-PG1–6 in different matrices. A schematic of the accumulation pattern of MTX-PG1–6 in different matrices. The MTX-PG1–6 were measured using UPLC-MS/MS. Distinct accumulation patterns can be observed between the representative cell type (erythrocytes), immune effector cells types (PBMCs) and target cells types (mucosa, sperm). MTX-PG, methotrexate polyglutamate; PBMCs, peripheral blood mononuclear cells; UPLC-MS/MS, ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.

Erythrocyte-MTX-PG1–5 can be quantified via commercial sources. These reports also include the concentration of MTX-PG1–5 expected for therapeutic efficacy (87,88). The limitations of these commercial tests are that they are laboratory-developed test without TDM implementation studies and can only be used in a research setting.

Alternate blood sampling systems

The abovementioned analytical methods require a phlebotomist to perform a venipuncture which is invasive to a certain degree. In 2014, the first method to quantify MTX-PG1–5 from dried blood spots (Guthrie cards) was developed and validated. Dried blood spots use less volume of blood (12 µL). This study showed applicability in samples collected from JIA or juvenile dermatomyositis patients (89). This method though did not use internal standards for quantification. This method can also be used to monitor treatment compliance. Another study quantified MTX-PG3 from blood sampled in fingerstick [10 µL volumetric absorptive microsampler (VAMS)] from RA patients. MTX-PG3 was quantified on an LC-MS/MS with internal standards. A 1.3-fold higher concentration was noted in the VAMS after correcting for hematocrit when compared to concentrations in erythrocytes. This was attributed to greater extraction efficiency in the VAMS samples in the presence of plasma (90). Both these methods have potential applications in home sampling and for pediatric patient samples. If implemented, these methods can simplify TDM applications and compliance monitoring in IMID patients. The MTX-PG1–5 accumulation pattern in whole blood is similar to erythrocytes.

Although there are advantages for quantifying MTX-PG1–5 in erythrocytes, these cells are not involved in the pathogenesis of IMIDs. Methods to quantify in other matrices related to disease pathologies are being investigated.

Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs)

The first matrix of interest are PBMCs. These are a collection of immune cells in the blood which include T- and B-lymphocytes and monocytes. Due to their relatively low numbers in blood and higher matrix effects (possibly due to phospholipids) than the erythrocyte matrix, quantification has, hitherto, been difficult. The first abstract quantifying MTX-PGs in PBMCs from JIA patients was presented in 2011 (91). Following this, Daraghmeh et al. in 2022 quantified MTX-PGs in PBMCs using LC-MS/MS without validating the method (82). A recent study compared MTX-PG1–3 levels in erythrocytes and PBMCs from 40 early RA patients (32). Recently, we developed and validated a UPLC-MS/MS method quantifying low concentrations of MTX-PG1–6. MTX-PG5 was close to our limits of quantification. MTX-PG6 was not detected in RA patient PBMC samples (92). The MTX-PG1–3 distribution profile in PBMCs revealed that MTX-PG1 represented the largest fraction (58%), followed by MTX-PG2 (27%) and MTX-PG3 (15%) (Figure 2) (32,92). This was confirmed in PBMCs isolated from CD (n=6) patients on MTX (93). This profile may be accountable by the short lifespan of PBMCs (1–4 days, depending on the cell type) and the relatively low FPGS activity in PBMCs (94-96).

Mucosa

Biopsies (n=28) from CD patients treated with MTX were taken during a routine endoscopy from different locations in the small intestine, colon or the rectum with different inflammation status and MTX-PG1–6 levels were quantified. Due to the low number of samples, association study was not performed on mucosal MTX-PG1–6 concentrations (93). The pattern of accumulation revealed high MTX-PG1 and considerable accumulation of MTX-PG2–5 with detectable concentration of MTX-PG6 (Figure 2). Remarkably, the levels of MTX-PG2–5 in mucosa were retained 3 weeks after stopping MTX treatment (93). Due to the invasive nature of the sample collection, mucosa may not be the most preferred matrix for TDM.

Sperm

Commonly, male patients on MTX, should they wish to have children, are advised to stop MTX 6 months prior. This led to the first investigation to study if MTX-PG1–5 were quantifiable in sperm cells. They noted low levels of MTX-PG1 and negligible concentrations of MTX-PG2–5 in sperm cells. After checking other parameters related to sperm health, they concluding that male patients wishing to be fathers could continue MTX treatment (Figure 2) (97). Although not a TDM matrix, sperm MTX-PG1–5 concentrations could be checked with great accuracy using UPLC-MS/MS methodology in male patients with a desire to have children.

Urine

Due to the action of aldehyde oxidase (AOX) in the liver, the catabolic product of MTX, 7-OH-MTX, can be measured in urine (98). Increased conversion of MTX to 7-OH-MTX, would imply that less MTX-PG1–5 are sequestered in the cells. 7-OH-MTX has limited ability to block DFHR and may serve as a negative marker for MTX efficacy and retention. Additionally, it can also be hypothesized that adding drugs that inhibit AOX can have a synergistic effect on MTX. A preliminary study was performed using folic acid which is usually prescribed to patients on MTX (11). Folic acid was shown to block AOX leading to decrease in 7-OH-MTX, a similar effect identified in a 2003 study using cyclosporin A prescribed with MTX (99). In 2019, Morgan and Baggott hypothesized adding raloxifene (used to prevent osteoporosis in post-menopausal women) to MTX could decrease 7-OH-MTX formation, since raloxifene has a potent inhibitory effects on AOX (100,101). The caveats to this hypothesis however are that it needs to be investigated experimentally and the potential increase in MTX-related toxicity should not outweigh clinical benefits.

RA synovium

A study from 1989 suggests that by 4–24 hours after oral or intravenous MTX dosing, synovial fluid of RA patients had similar concentrations of MTX to that in plasma (102). Similar to mucosa, due to the invasive nature of synovial biopsies, it is underexplored and is not an ideal matrix for TDM.

Interindividual variations of MTX-PG1–5 and response associations

Multiple prospective cohort studies have investigated associations between erythrocyte MTX-PG1–5 concentrations and therapy efficacy (83,84,103-105). The large range of MTX-PG1–5 concentrations indicated large inter-individual variations (106).

RA and JIA

Quantification of erythrocyte MTX-PG1–5 concentrations identified inter-individual and longitudinal variations in the concentrations, enabling the use of erythrocyte MTX-PG1–5 for TDM studies. Independent studies conducted in multiple countries associated erythrocyte MTX-PG3&total accumulation with response after 3 to 6 months of treatment (83,84,107,108). A meta-analysis including 21 studies quantified erythrocyte MTX-PG1–5 levels in RA, JIA, IBD (ulcerative colitis and CD), and atopic dermatitis (including psoriasis) (2). In most of these 21 studies, a higher accumulation of long-chain MTX-PG3–5 correlated with lower disease activity. Conversely, a cross-sectional cohort of established RA patients on long-term MTX showed a higher erythrocyte MTX-PG5 fraction in patients with high disease activity despite correcting for confounders such as age, kidney function [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)], and MTX dose differences (108). Similarly, a prospective study in 117 established RA patients, did not find an association with between erythrocyte MTX-PG3&total concentrations and 6 months therapy efficacy (109). Interestingly, in a Japanese RA cohort (n=79), despite the maximum MTX dose of only 16 mg/week, concentrations of erythrocyte MTX-PGtotal were similar to those in patients treated with a higher concentration of 25 mg/week, hinting at a possible influence of folate-pathway gene polymorphisms determining the accumulation of MTX-PG1–5 (105). Despite inter-study variations, the meta-analysis study suggests using MTX-PG3 or MTX-PGtotal as TDM markers (2).

Recently, the “methotrexate monitoring” (MeMo) clinical study randomized 40 early RA patients into oral or subcutaneous treated with MTX (and prednisolone) (32). Though not powered for response correlations, higher concentrations of individual erythrocyte MTX-PG3–5 concentrations were associated with lower disease activity. Significantly higher erythrocyte MTX-PG3–5 concentrations at months 1 and 2 were found after subcutaneous MTX use, which equalized by month 3. This study suggested that the early higher intracellular MTX concentrations because of the higher bioavailability of subcutaneous MTX is short-lived. The MeMo study also measured PBMC-MTX-PGs in 40 RA patients. Notably, MTX-PGtotal levels in PBMCs were 10–20-fold higher than in erythrocytes on a per cell basis. Interestingly, longitudinally (months 1, 2, 3, and 6), PBMC-MTX-PGs concentrations remained rather constant, which may be related with the relatively short lifespan of PBMCs and their repopulation in circulation after weekly MTX dosing. The MeMo study showed no associations of PBMC-MTX-PG levels with AEs (32).

CD

The results of a clinical trial similar to MeMo in patients with CD, treated with subcutaneous MTX were reported (85). Erythrocyte MTX-PG3 after 3 months treatment was significantly associated with MTX drug survival. Forty-two percent of the CD patients experienced GI intolerances during MTX treatment. Notably, younger age, female sex, and no alcohol consumption were predictors of GI intolerance. High erythrocyte MTX-PG3–5 levels were associated with decreased fecal calprotectin concentrations at 12, 25, and 51 weeks, while higher MTXPG1&3 were associated with a biochemical response at week 12 (85). Furthermore, PBMC-MTX-PGs were measured in six CD patients and confirmed the PBMC-MTX-PG accumulation pattern observed in the MeMo clinical study for RA patients (93).

Other IMIDs

The evidence for erythrocyte MTX-PGs and response associations in other IMIDs is meager compared to RA. A retrospective study in patients with sarcoidosis noted a significant negative association between MTX-PG3, MTX-PG4 and changes in maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) on the fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT). Patients with ≥30% decrease in SUVmax are responders (103). In myasthenia gravis patients treated for 12 months with MTX, Pasnoor et al. showed erythrocyte MTX-PG4&5 concentrations correlated with the different outcome measures (110). In psoriasis or PsA patients, no association between erythrocyte MTX-PG3 and response was noted (86,111). Interestingly, in a retrospective cohort of children with atopic dermatitis (n=30), erythrocyte MTX-PG3 level (at 12 weeks) was higher in responders, correlating with response (111).

Therapeutic window for MTX-PG1–5

To derive useful clinical input from the erythrocyte MTX-PG1–5 concentrations, a reliable TDM cut-off and which individual MTX-PGs species should be measured must be chosen. MTX-PG1&5 are subject to either variations due to plasma contaminations or very low concentrations, respectively. Among MTX-PG2–4, MTX-PG3&total are good options for clinical implementation (2). The clinical studies building our meta-analysis had a wide the cut-off for erythrocyte MTX-PGtotal ranging from 27.3 to 83.3 nmol/L, due to number of responders, MTX-PGs detection methods, and time of MTX-PGs measurement among others (2). In the commercial center at Exagen, the therapeutic range of MTX-PGtotal was defined between 20 to ≥60 nmol/L packed erythrocytes (87). At Labcorp, the other commercial center for quantifying MTX-PGs, the 3-month cut-off for therapeutic effect was set higher at ≥74 nmol/L packed erythrocytes of MTX-PGtotal (88).

A prospective study in MTX-naïve Japanese RA patients (n=79) indicated the cut-off for MTX treatment efficacy (DAS-28 improvement ≥1.2) between 80 and 100 nmol/L packed erythrocytes of MTX-PGtotal (105). This study identified MTX-PGtotal >105 nmol/L packed erythrocytes as a cut-off for risk of liver damage (transaminases of ≥50 IU/L) (105). NONMEM modeling of MTX-PG1–5 using accumulation using data from 395 RA patients (including 3,401 MTX-PG1–5 concentrations and 1,377 DAS-28 measurements), identified an optimal therapeutic response window for MTX-PG3–5-sum at between 47 and 78 nmol/L packed erythrocytes after 3 months of MTX treatment (112). In case of insufficient response despite an erythrocyte-MTX-PGtotal concentration >78 nmol/L packed erythrocytes, other treatment options can be considered. If concentrations of MTX-PG3–5-sum are below 9.15 nmol/L packed erythrocytes after 1 month of MTX treatment, a dose increase should first be considered (112). This model-informed precision dosing should first be clinically validated, but serves a promising strategy to guide personalized MTX dosing schemes. Although the therapeutic window was identified in RA, it is also promising to evaluate the potential use of this therapeutic window in other IMIDs (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Response prediction and TDM of MTX-PGs. Prediction models can predict response at baseline, helping to personalize the most optimal treatment plan while TDM offers real-time guide of treatment. Using model-informed precision dosing, treatment plans can be tailored to each patient to obtain the most optimal efficacy while balancing toxicity. For example, if the erythrocyte MTX-PG3–5-sum is above or below the therapeutic window, the dose can be adjusted to reach the target window, while also monitoring for hepatotoxicity/sub-optimal erythrocyte MTX-PG3–5-sum concentrations. BMI, body mass index; DMARD, disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; HAQ, Health Assessment Questionnaire; MTX-PG, methotrexate polyglutamate; MTX-PG3–5-sum, sum of concentrations of MTX-PG3 to MTX-PG5; TDM, therapeutic drug monitoring; TJC28, 28-joint tender joint count.

TDM implementation

Implementing proactive-TDM can maximize benefits for the patients. Prospective randomized clinical trials are needed to evaluate the clinical efficacy of model-informed precision dosing strategies against standard dosing. Integration of efficacy and toxicity monitoring with artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms can increase the role of patients and make them central to their treatment. With machine learning approaches, patients can get personalized advice and possible diagnostic tests to alter dose, switch medication or monitor intolerances (Figure 3).


Conclusions

Extensive research has been performed and is currently ongoing to improve MTX treatment in IMIDs. Being both cost-effective and clinically effective, MTX is a primary choice in many IMIDs. Many studies have investigated TDM of MTX and have also tried to determine what factors can influence cellular MTX-PG accumulation and how this impacts response. Importantly, state-of-the-art analytical tools as LC-MS/MS allow accurate measurements of very low levels of MTX-PGs not only in abundant erythrocytes but also in low numbers (a few million) of immune cells (PBMCs/tissues) involved in IMID disease pathology. These analytical advances can be positioned to guide future clinically-directed laboratory studies aiming at personalized treatments for IMIDs. Additionally, these analytical tools can assist in experimental studies aiming at increasing MTX-PG cellular retention, e.g., by therapeutic interventions with drugs preventing deactivation of MTX or blocking MTX efflux. Further studies are needed to demonstrate the feasibility of utilizing PBMC-MTX-PG1–5 concentrations for TDM approaches. Being the relevant target cells in IMIDs, investigating effects of MTX and MTX-PG1–5 on PBMCs can reveal novel insights in response determinants. Ideally, the implementation of these TDM strategies of predicting response as well as timely course of drug dose adaptations and/or drug switch may assist in reducing disease progression for individual patients. To this end, clinical implementation of MTX (non)response prediction models and TDM cut-offs are warranted, initially in RA and at a later stage for other IMIDs treated with MTX.


Acknowledgments

None.


Footnote

Reporting Checklist: The authors have completed the Narrative Review reporting checklist. Available at https://jlpm.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/jlpm-25-7/rc

Funding: None.

Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at https://jlpm.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/jlpm-25-7/coif). R.d.J. has a non-financial advisory relationship with the start-up Amplio Pharma. The other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Ethical Statement: The authors are accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved.

Open Access Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.


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doi: 10.21037/jlpm-25-7
Cite this article as: Sundaresan J, Verstoep LJ, Jansen G, de Jonge R, de Rotte MCFJ, Bulatović-Ćalasan M. Personalized methotrexate treatment in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a narrative review. J Lab Precis Med 2025;10:13.

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